S&P Global says vendor lead times lengthened at the fastest pace since August 2022 in September, and ISM has now recorded ten straight months of slower deliveries. Most manufacturers still cannot see the suppliers where those delays begin.
September was a good month for American factories by almost every headline measure. Orders rose, output rose and hiring picked up. Underneath those numbers, the supply base is struggling to keep pace. Deliveries are slowing, purchasing teams are stocking up to compensate, and the surveys that track supplier risk show that most manufacturers are managing it with a view that stops at their direct suppliers.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9 in September, up from 53.9 in August and the strongest reading since May 2022, according to Trading Economics' summary of the final release. Output growth extended to 16 months, and employment grew at its fastest rate in more than five years despite reports of difficulty finding suitable workers. The same survey found vendor lead times lengthened at the fastest pace since August 2022, while inflationary pressures intensified and export sales continued to fall.
Manufacturers are reacting the way they usually do when deliveries slip. The National Association of Manufacturers' write-up of the S&P data notes that stocks of purchases rose for the sixth consecutive month, that backlogs rose due in part to delivery delays, and that input prices increased at a steeper rate because of tariffs, higher energy prices and supply shortages.
The Institute for Supply Management's survey tells a similar story with a different emphasis. Its September Manufacturing PMI report put the Supplier Deliveries Index at 59.0, down slightly from 59.3 in August but still showing slower deliveries for the tenth month in a row. Susan Spence, chair of ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said the average lead time for production materials was 84 days, unchanged from August, and that lead times were cited in 21% of negative respondent comments. ISM's Inventories Index fell 2.0 points to 48.6, so not every plant is managing to build the buffer it wants.
The two surveys differ on how sharply conditions worsened in September. They agree on the direction: the supply base is taking longer to deliver, and it has been doing so for most of the year.
A late delivery from a direct supplier is rarely that supplier's problem alone. It is often a casting, a resin, an electronic component or a subcontracted process two or three tiers further back. That is precisely the part of the chain most manufacturers cannot see.
The Achilles Global Supplier Risk and Sustainability Survey, based on responses from 2,805 organisations across sectors including industrial manufacturing, found that only 6% report full visibility into Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers, while nearly half report limited or no visibility beyond their immediate supplier base. Nearly 60% cited risks related to the long-term availability of specialised suppliers, and only 18% said they were very confident in the accuracy of supplier-reported safety data.
Manufacturers feel the consequences directly. In the manufacturing edition of Sphera's 2026 Supply Chain Risk Report, 72% of manufacturers reported financial or operational losses from disruptions in the previous 12 months, with a reported mean of 3.48 material disruptions a year. Respondents said risk reviews for new suppliers or sourcing changes often take days or weeks, limiting pre-emptive action, and that visibility beyond Tier 1 remains inconsistent even where confidence in data is high.
Sphera also found that buffering strategies such as inventory cushioning and alternate sourcing reduce the impact of disruption without preventing it. That matters now, because buffering is exactly what September's PMI data shows plants doing. Extra stock buys time. It does not tell a plant which sub-tier supplier is about to slip, or why, and it ties up working capital while input prices are rising.
Longer lead times are usually discussed as a purchasing metric. On the plant floor they show up as schedule changes, partial builds, expedited freight and lines waiting on a single missing component. With S&P reporting backlogs rising in part because of delivery delays, the cost is already visible in orders that cannot be finished.
The pressure also travels downstream. Equipment makers and distributors that support installed machinery are drawing on the same constrained supply base for their service parts, so a customer waiting on a repair feels a sub-tier delay just as sharply as a production line does. And when a supplier change is needed quickly, Sphera's finding that reviews take days or weeks means the plant is often still assessing the replacement when the original shortage arrives.
The answer is not to abandon buffer stock. It is to make sure the buffer is aimed at the right parts, and to start building the visibility that buffers cannot provide.
September's numbers show an industry that is busy and getting busier. That is welcome, but it also means demand is testing a supply base that has been slowing for ten months. Plants that can see where the next delay is forming, rather than learning about it from an empty bin, will be the ones that turn this upturn into finished orders.
Report
Nearly half of the organisations Achilles surveyed cannot see past their direct suppliers. This report examines how supply chain risk programmes are being redesigned as regulatory and ESG expectations push scrutiny deeper into the supply base.
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Guide
When production materials take 84 days to arrive, customers waiting on a repair cannot wait that long for a service part. This guide covers how aftermarket leaders decide where to position inventory so upstream delays do not reach the installed base.
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Report
Sphera's respondents say supplier risk reviews still take days or weeks while lead times stretch. This annual research shows where manufacturers are investing in data and automation, and which of those investments are delivering faster, better-informed decisions.
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